DE, MN, NH, NY Primary Predictions Thread

There are a whole lot of primaries that will be decided tonight. Most of them are sideshows, but a few of them are real races. Here’s everything of remote interest:

  • DE-Gov (D): Jack Markell vs. John Carney
  • DE-AL (D): Moose vs. Squirrel Jerry “Possum” Northington vs. Karen Hartley-Nagle and Mike Miller
  • MN-Sen (D): Al Franken vs. Priscilla Lord Faris
  • MN-01 (R): Dick Day vs. Brian Davis
  • NH-01 (R): Jeb Bradley vs. John Stephen
  • NH-02 (R): Jennifer Horn vs. Bob Clegg and various losers
  • NY-10 (D): Ed Towns vs. Kevin Powell
  • NY-13 (D & R): Mike McMahon vs. Stephen Harrison; Jamshad Wyne vs. Robert “Weiner King of Manhattan” Straniere
  • NY-21 (D): Paul Tonko vs. Tracey Brooks vs. Phil Steck vs. Darius Shahinfar
  • NY-26 (D): Crazy Jack Davis vs. Alice Kryzan vs. John Powers

Got any predictions?

32 thoughts on “DE, MN, NH, NY Primary Predictions Thread”

  2. Let’s not forget the race for DC shadow senator, where two-term incumbent Paul Strauss faces a strong challenge by Phil Pannell.

    Yeah, I know, no one cares.

  6. DE-Gov: Markell 54 – Carney 46

    DE-AL: Possum 45 – Hartley-Nagle 35 – Mike Miller 20

    MN-Sen: Franken 85 – Lord Faris 10 – Other 5

    MN-01: Davis 70 – Day 30

    NH-01: Bradly 55 – Stephen 45

    NH-02: Clegg 50 – Horn 45 – Various Losers 5

    NY-10: Towns 57 – Powell 43

    NY-13: McMahon 60 – Harrison 40

    NY-21: Brooks 23 – Tonko 21 – Steck 20 – Shahinfar 16

    NY-26: 41-39-20 Powers-Davis-Kryzan

  7. MN-Sen: Franken 75 – Lord Faris 20 – Other 5

    MN-01: Davis 70 – Day 30

    NH-01: Bradley 55 – Stephen 45

    NY-10: Towns 55 – Powell 45

    NY-13: McMahon 60 – Harrison 40

    NY-26: Powers 45 Davis 39 Kryzan 15

    let’s put an end to Jack Davis’ electoral games once and for all.

  8. …and not predict NY-13.  I can’t emphasize just how low interest is in this election.  Partly because the newspaper has covered it as already over.

    The dynamics of a very low turnout election are far different than your typical race.  Because there are FAR fewer undecideds or non-partisans who bother showing up to vote based on what one side or another is doing.

    It will all come down to organization and to a cerain extent who can literally physically drag their supporters to the polls.

  9. Just voted after work and turnout at least in the small town I live in has been very light, only 75 people as of 3:00 Central (About 800 voted in the 2006 general). As there is not much suspense on the DFL side I considered trying to make mischief in the Republican or Independence Party primaries but since I really do not see any of their candidates being significantly weaker than another I just voted DFL.

    Races to watch.

    MN- Sen (DFL) This is all about the margin. All Franken is going to win but do not be suprised if Pricilla Lord Farris gets a significant protest vote. If Franken does not win 2-1 it is a sign of real trouble for him this fall. (BTW with only the 1st Cong Dist having a real contest on the republican side I would not be suprised if quit a few Republicans cross over and vote in the Dem primary.

    Prediction: Frankin 65 Lord Faris 35

    MN- Sen (Ind) There is a 7 way primary for Independence Party. Dean Barkley is the most well known and would garner the votes in the general (I think about 10-15%). He faces a former party chair and the endorsed IP candidate so it is not a sure thing he will win the Primary. Turnout will be extremley light so anything can happen.

    Prediction: Barkley with 40% of the vote

    CD 1 (Rep)- I almost crossed over to vote in the race. Brian Davis has the money and the Rep endorsement but State Senator Dick Day is better known and if he had money would be be the stronger candidate IMO. I don’t think either can beat Tim Walz but Day would have a slightly better chance IMO.

    Day in an upset 52-48

  10. Mn-01: Brian Davis 55-45

    NY-13: Mike McMahon 63-37

    Don’t care about NY-21, it’s not  arace and I haven’t heard anything about this primary.

    Ny-26: 51 Powers, 31 Davis, 18 Kryzan

    NH-01: John Stephen 52-48

    NH-02: Bob Clegg 57-43

    DE-AL is a not a race, and I’ve heard nothing about it.

    DE-Gov: Hopefully and probably Jack Markell, 53-47.

    MN-Sen: Not really a race, but Franken by an 81-19 margin.

    I’ll even give you NY-10: Ed Towns 67-33.

    Let’s see how good my luck is.

  11. I havn’t kept up with that race since I didn’t realize there was a real race.  Looks like a few people on here think Stephen has a chance.  I assume it’s a good thing if he won it due to name recognition Bradley has.

  12. I’m torn as to who I’d prefer see win.  Brian Davis has zero name recognition and would be a pushover in the general election, but certifiable lunatic Dick Day would bring so much comedy value to the race it might be worth it even if he does give Walz more of a run for his money.  Based on name recognition, I’ll predict a 55-45 Day victory, but I wouldn’t be blown away if Davis pulled it out given the likely low turnout outside of the hard-core GOP faithful.

    As for MN-Sen, it’ll be Franken 77-23 or thereabouts.

    I’m not in the loop enough to predict on the other races.

  13. DE-Gov (D): Carney 54%, Markell 46%

    DE-Gov (R): Lee 62%, Protack 38%

    DE-AL (D): Northington 44%, Hartley-Nagle 41%, Miller 15%

    MN-Sen (D): Franken 78%, Faris 22%

    MN-01 (R): Davis 65%, Day 35%

    NH-01 (R): Bradley 48%, Stephen 43%, Rest 9%

    NH-02 (R): Clegg 44%, Horn 40%, Rest 16%

    NY-10 (D): Towns 63%, Powell 37%

    NY-13 (D): McMahon 73%, Harrison 27%

    NY-13 (R): Wyne 58%, Straniere 30%, Rest 12%

    NY-21 (D): Brooks 29%, Tonko 27%, Steck 24%, Shahinfar 19%, Rest 1%

    NY-26 (D): Powers 42%, Davis 40%, Kryzan 18%

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